Disclaimer: educational content only, not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk of loss. Full disclaimer at the bottom of the page.
VS3D Live Education · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Trading with VS3D
In this session, you'll learn how to use positions to estimate the day's trading ranges, how to use the Gamma gradient for spread selection and directional exit targets, and how to use Charm to predict the directional bias active across different parts of the range. We discuss how we use the simple, risk-defined "butterfly" trade to exploit these three Key elements of the data every day.
-116.42 ESgamma: futures on a $1 up move at spot, 9:30 AM
-11.81 EScharm, next 5 min at spot
2 + 2the two biggest lines are longs either side of spot, with two more longs on it
~11:30a charm buying pocket opens 20 points under spot
Today's onboarding session
VS3D Live Education: Trading, live in the dashboard, 2:00 PM ET today. About 30 minutes, no registration. We'll go through today's range and levels on screen and then take your questions. The join link is posted in Discord #announcements and on X the morning of each session.
Before you read onThis page teaches a way of reading the market maker position. It is not investment advice and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Options involve substantial risk of loss, the model can be wrong, and the levels below are for the dates stated only. Full disclaimer at the bottom.
Today, Oct 8: the position, the overnight tape, gamma and charm
This morning's captures, 8:20 AM ET, on the position after Wednesday's close. The two biggest lines in today's expiry are both market maker longs, one about 30 points over spot near the top of the straddle range and one about 20 points under it just inside the lower boundary, with two more longs right at spot. The biggest short sits on the lower boundary and a cluster of shorts starts just over the upper one. So the index is marked between long lines on every side, and the shorts sit just outside the range. The strikes, the sizes and the straddle are for today's 2:00 PM ET session and are blurred on these screens; the spot label is not. The four screens below show the position and what it does to the overnight tape, to gamma and to charm.
Positions by Strike: today's expiring lines
Positions by Strike in the VS3D dashboard at 8:20 AM ET: the market maker net position in the Oct 8 expiry, one bar per strike, blue where they're long and gold where they're short. The dotted lines are spot plus and minus the straddle. Hover a bar for the line and its approximate size.
On this screen (hover or tap)
1Positions by Strike, SPX, 0DTE
2Spot at capture, 7,772.35
3The upper long: about 30 points over spot, near the top of the range
4Two longs right at spot
5The lower long: about 20 points under spot, just inside the lower boundary
6The biggest short: right on the lower boundary
7A cluster of shorts over the upper boundary
8Small shorts between spot and the upper long
9Small shorts between spot and the lower long
10Below the range: alternating lines
11A long at the top of the window
Positions by Strike, SPX, 0DTE
The market maker net position in today's expiry (Oct 8 PM), one bar per strike. Right of center they are long (blue), left of center they are short (gold). The dots are Wednesday's 4 PM settle, so the bars minus the dots are what changed overnight. Capture 8:20 AM ET, spot 7,772.35. The strikes, the sizes and the straddle are for the session; the sizes quoted here are read off the chart scale and are approximate.
Spot at capture, 7,772.35
Down 29.37 from Wednesday's close. The two dotted lines above and below are spot plus and minus the straddle, the range the options market has priced for the session.
The upper long: about 30 points over spot, near the top of the range
One of the two biggest lines in the window, about 2,800 contracts long, a few points inside the upper edge of the straddle range. A long line is where a test tends to stall: under its strike the position gets shorter as time passes and market makers buy.
Two longs right at spot
About 2,100 and 1,950 contracts long on the two strikes that bracket spot, roughly two thirds the size of the two big lines. The index opened the session marked between them.
The lower long: about 20 points under spot, just inside the lower boundary
The biggest line in the window, about 2,900 contracts long, a few points inside the lower edge of the straddle range. The gold charm pocket that opens late in the morning sits on this line.
The biggest short: right on the lower boundary
About 1,800 contracts short, one strike under the lower long and a couple of points over the lower edge of the straddle range. The shorts are where the range gets tested.
A cluster of shorts over the upper boundary
Six short lines starting just over the upper edge of the straddle range and running about 30 points above it, the largest about 1,850 contracts at the top of the cluster. The red area that opens on the gamma gradient above the range from mid-morning is these lines.
Small shorts between spot and the upper long
Three small short lines, the largest about 650 contracts, between the longs at spot and the upper long.
Small shorts between spot and the lower long
Two small short lines of about 600 and 300 contracts.
Below the range: alternating lines
Under the lower boundary the lines alternate long and short, none larger than about 850 contracts.
A long at the top of the window
About 600 contracts long above the short cluster.
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The overnight tape
The overnight range in the futures at the SPX-equivalent level, 6:00 PM Wednesday to 8:20 AM this morning: high 7,805.30 at 7:33 PM, low 7,752.05 at 6:31 AM, 7,769.05 at capture. That is about 53 points from high to low, most of it in a steady decline between 2 AM and 6:30 AM, from the upper long line down into the lower one, with about a third of it recovered by 8:20.
On this chart (hover or tap)
1December futures at the SPX-equivalent level
2Overnight high 7,805.30 at 7:33 PM
3About 50 points lower between 2 AM and 6:30 AM
4Overnight low 7,752.05 at 6:31 AM
57,769.05 at 8:20 AM
6Time of day, 6 PM Wednesday to 8:30 AM
December futures at the SPX-equivalent level
The overnight session in the futures, 6:00 PM ET Wednesday to 8:20 AM ET this morning, marked at the SPX-equivalent level. The legend carries the session high and low.
Overnight high 7,805.30 at 7:33 PM
The high printed in the first two hours of the overnight session, a few points over the upper long line in today's expiry and inside the upper edge of the straddle range.
About 50 points lower between 2 AM and 6:30 AM
The largest move of the overnight session: a steady decline from the upper long line down through spot and into the lower long line.
Overnight low 7,752.05 at 6:31 AM
The low printed about on the lower long line and inside the lower edge of the straddle range, and the futures were about 17 points higher by 8:20.
7,769.05 at 8:20 AM
Where the futures sat when the dashboard captures were taken: -31.00 on the session, between the two longs at spot.
Time of day, 6 PM Wednesday to 8:30 AM
Read left to right for the overnight session.
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Gamma: where a move gets faded and where it gets chased
The Gradient Chart on gamma. Green is long gamma, and it covers the whole window through the first hour. A red area opens about 35 points over spot around 10 AM, on the short cluster over the upper boundary, and widens all day; by the close its bottom edge is about 30 points over spot. Under that the window stays green all session, brightest around the long lines at spot, until small red pockets open in the last half hour. The tooltip is the 9:30 AM column at spot: $3.51bn per 1% and -116.42 ES to trade on a $1 up move, about two thirds of yesterday's read.
On this screen (hover or tap)
1Gradient Chart, SPX, Gamma, 7,770.46
2Straddle at capture
3Green across the window in the first hour
4Red above the straddle range from about 10 AM
5Green around spot all session
6The magenta contour
7The cyan curve inside the red
8Small red pockets in the last half hour
9Time of day, 8:30 AM to 3:52 PM
10Index level
Gradient Chart, SPX, Gamma, 7,770.46
The whole market maker position, every expiry, priced at every index level (vertical axis) and every time of day (horizontal axis), coloured by the sign of gamma. Green is long gamma: market makers sell futures into rallies and buy them on declines. Red is short gamma: they buy rallies and sell declines. Captured Oct 8, 2026 at 8:20 AM ET, before the open, on the position as it stood after Wednesday's close.
Straddle at capture
The at-the-money straddle for today's expiry at capture, the market's own estimate of the day's range. The number itself is for the session.
Green across the window in the first hour
From the open to about 9:50 AM the field is green at every level in the window. Market makers are long gamma everywhere, so a move into either edge of the straddle range is faded by the hedge.
Red above the straddle range from about 10 AM
Short gamma opens about 35 points over spot around 9:50 AM and widens all day. By the close its bottom edge is about 30 points over spot, right at the upper edge of the straddle range. These are the short lines of today's expiry over the upper boundary. If the index is up there, market makers buy the move higher and sell the move lower.
Green around spot all session
From about 30 points over spot down to the bottom of the window the field stays green all day, brightest around the long lines at spot. A move at spot gets faded from the open to the close.
The magenta contour
A threshold contour that marks the strongest long gamma at each time of day. It starts about 25 points under spot late in the morning and rises to spot by mid-afternoon.
The cyan curve inside the red
Inside the red area a cyan curve marks where the short gamma is largest at each time of day: the top of the short cluster, about 60 points over spot.
Small red pockets in the last half hour
From about 3:20 PM small short-gamma pockets open just over spot, under the lower boundary and about 50 points under spot, one per short line, as the expiring lines take over the profile.
Time of day, 8:30 AM to 3:52 PM
The session clock. Read left to right for how the field changes as time passes with the index unchanged. Gamma concentrates on the expiring lines as the day decays.
Index level
The vertical axis is the index, blurred here; the window runs about 85 points either side of spot. Hover any point in the dashboard and the tooltip prices the position at that level and that time.
The tooltip fields
1Timestamp
2Price: the hovered index level
3Exposure
4Dollar Per Percent
5Dollar Value of Trade
6Hedge Product to Trade
Timestamp
Oct 8, 2026, the 9:30 AM column of the Gradient Chart.
Price: the hovered index level
The simulated index level, 7,770.75, which is about where spot was marked before the open.
Exposure
Gamma at the node: 58.21. Positive = market makers are long gamma here.
Dollar Per Percent
$3.51bn of futures to trade for a 1% move in the index. Yesterday's column at spot read $5.46bn.
Dollar Value of Trade
-$45.2mm: the notional value of futures to trade on a $1 up move in the index. Negative = they sell into strength.
Hedge Product to Trade
-116.42 ES: the futures to trade on a $1 up move in the index. Negative = market makers sell. Yesterday's column read about -180 ES.
Charm: which way the hedging runs while you wait
The Gradient Chart on charm. Spot is in the blue, so with the index standing still market makers sell futures as time passes: -11.81 ES over the next five minutes at the 9:30 AM column, against +2.78 ES yesterday, a buy. Around 11:30 AM a gold pocket opens about 20 points under spot, on the lower long line, and widens to about 35 points under spot by 3 PM. Hold the index where it was marked this morning and the decay hedge there is a sale all day; a drift of 20 points lower puts it in the pocket from late morning, where it turns to buying.
On this screen (hover or tap)
1Gradient Chart, SPX, Charm, 7,770.44
2Straddle at capture
3Gold at the top of the window: market makers buy as time passes
4The boundary: where charm crosses zero
5Blue around spot through the morning: market makers sell as time passes
6A gold pocket under spot from about 11:30 AM
7Blue between spot and the boundary all afternoon
8Blue under the pocket
9Orange curve: where the selling is heaviest
10Blue curves inside the pocket
11Into the close
12Time of day, 8:30 AM to 3:52 PM
13Index level
Gradient Chart, SPX, Charm, 7,770.44
The same position coloured by the sign of charm: how its delta changes as time passes with the index standing still. Gold is where the position loses delta and market makers buy futures. Blue is where it gains delta and they sell. Captured Oct 8, 2026 at 8:20 AM ET.
Straddle at capture
The at-the-money straddle for today's expiry at capture. The number itself is for the session.
Gold at the top of the window: market makers buy as time passes
Gold is negative charm. It covers the top of the window all session, from about 60 points over spot up. On this profile it only comes into play for a rally that has cleared the straddle range and the short cluster above it.
The boundary: where charm crosses zero
The dotted contour starts the day about 50 points over spot and drifts about 10 points higher by early afternoon. Treat it as a zone a few points wide.
Blue around spot through the morning: market makers sell as time passes
Blue is positive charm. Spot is inside it from the open, so through the morning the decay hedge at spot is a sale. The 9:30 AM tooltip reads -11.81 ES over the next five minutes.
A gold pocket under spot from about 11:30 AM
The pocket opens about 20 points under spot, on the lower long line, and widens into the afternoon: by 3 PM it runs from about 35 points under spot up to a few points under it. Under a long line's strike a long option loses delta as it decays, call or put, so the position gets shorter there and market makers buy.
Blue between spot and the boundary all afternoon
Over the long lines the position gains delta as time passes, so market makers sell. That keeps the stretch from spot up to the boundary blue all day.
Blue under the pocket
Below the pocket the decay hedge is a sale again, down to the bottom of the window.
Orange curve: where the selling is heaviest
Inside a blue region an orange curve marks the largest selling flow. From about noon it sits about 30 points over spot, on the upper long line.
Blue curves inside the pocket
The solid blue lines trace the level of heaviest passive buying at each time of day. From about 2:30 PM they run inside the gold pocket.
Into the close
The same position produces stronger charm as expiration approaches, so the colours saturate through the afternoon and the last half hour alternates gold and blue, one pocket per expiring line. At 4 PM those lines are gone.
Time of day, 8:30 AM to 3:52 PM
The session clock. Every column is a fresh simulation of the position at that time of day, with the index held at each level.
Index level
The vertical axis is the index, blurred here; the window runs about 85 points either side of spot.
The tooltip fields
1Timestamp
2Price: the hovered index level
3Exposure
4Dollar Value of Trade
5Hedge Product to Trade
Timestamp
Oct 8, 2026, the 9:30 AM column of the Gradient Chart.
Price: the hovered index level
The simulated index level, 7,770.84, about where spot was marked before the open.
Exposure
Charm at the node: 5.91. Positive = the position gains delta as time passes and market makers sell. Negative = they buy.
Dollar Value of Trade
-$4.59mm of futures to trade over the next five minutes at this level, with the index unchanged. Negative = market makers sell.
Hedge Product to Trade
-11.81 ES: the same trade in futures contracts. Negative = sell. Yesterday's column at spot read +2.78 ES, a buy.
The morning
Market makers are long gamma across the whole window, so a move into either edge of the straddle range is faded by the hedge. At spot the decay hedge is a sale of about 12 ES every five minutes.
The afternoon
Short gamma widens over the top of the range from about 10 AM, so a move up through the upper boundary gets chased. Around spot the field stays green. From late morning market makers buy as time passes about 20 points under spot and sell above it.
At 2:00 PM ET
The strikes, the sizes and the straddle behind these screens are on camera in the session, on the live position, with your questions on how the profiles fit what you trade.
The sections below. Sections 1 to 7 are the annotated guide built on the Thursday, September 3 session: Positions by Strike with that morning's levels, the same gradients hotspot by hotspot, and how the pieces went together that day. The mechanics are the same every day. The numbers and levels in those sections are dated September 3.
1. The September 3 expiring position: the range and the levels
This is Positions by Strike in the VS3D dashboard at 6:40 AM ET: the market maker net position in the Sep 3, 2026 expiry, one bar per strike, blue where they're long and gold where they're short. The dotted lines are spot plus and minus the $32.10 straddle. The levels under the chart are the ones from that morning's meeting: tests at the short lines, balance at the long clusters. Hover a bar to see which is which.
On this screen (hover or tap)
1Positions by Strike, SPX, 0DTE
2Straddle $32.10
3Long 7715 and 7720: above the range
4Short 7685 to 7710: the 7695 test (second upside)
5Long 7670, 7675, 7680: the 7675 balance (Strong)
6Short 7665: the first upside test
77660: the opening balance (Weak), spot 7,660.17
8Short 7645 and 7650: the first downside test
9Long 7640: balance (Weak / Unstable)
10Short 7635: the second downside test
11Long 7625 and 7630: the 7625 balance (Strong)
12Long 7610 to 7620
13Short 7605
14Long 7600: the biggest line on the chart
Positions by Strike, SPX, 0DTE
The market maker net position in that day's expiry (Sep 3 PM), one bar per strike. Right of center they are long (blue), left of center they are short (gold). The dots are the prior session's 4 PM settle, so the bars minus the dots are what changed overnight. Capture 6:40 AM ET.
Straddle $32.10
The at-the-money straddle at capture. The two dotted lines at 7,692.27 and 7,628.07 are spot plus and minus the straddle: the range the options market has priced for the session. Both second tests (7695 and 7635) sit right at those lines.
Long 7715 and 7720: above the range
Two big long lines at the very top of the chart. They are above the 7695 test and the 7700 balance, so they only matter if the tape gets through the short cluster below them. Charm pulls toward longs, and these are where a late, extended rally would get pulled.
Short 7685 to 7710: the 7695 test (second upside)
Six short lines in a row, with the biggest at 7710. Dealers short at the edge of the range = a test. The tape has to punch through all of it, and the framework says expect extension and rejection. Cross 7695 and the balance moves to 7700, but a balance inside a short cluster is weak and unstable.
Long 7670, 7675, 7680: the 7675 balance (Strong)
The heaviest long cluster above spot, with the biggest line at 7675. This is the target on the upside: once 7665 is crossed, this is where the range resolves, and charm pulls toward it as the day decays. A strong balance is one where the longs sit on three adjacent strikes, not one.
Short 7665: the first upside test
One short line, five points above spot. The first thing the tape meets on a rally. Cross it and either we settle on 7675 or extend straight to 7695. Reject it and we reverse back through 7660.
7660: the opening balance (Weak), spot 7,660.17
Almost nothing on the line. Spot sits right on it, so it is the balance we open with, but with nothing holding it there, the first real test either side is what sets up the morning: 7665 five points up, 7645 fifteen points down.
Short 7645 and 7650: the first downside test
Two short lines under spot, the 7645 one bigger. The first downside test. Cross 7645 and either the tape settles on the small long 7640 or extends to test 7635.
Long 7640: balance (Weak / Unstable)
A modest long line wedged between two short ones. It counts as a balance once 7645 is crossed, but only while 7635 holds under it: a long line with a bigger short right below it is not a place to lean.
Short 7635: the second downside test
The biggest short line below spot, sitting a few points above the bottom of the straddle range. Cross it and the balance moves down to the strong 7625 cluster.
Long 7625 and 7630: the 7625 balance (Strong)
The heaviest long cluster below spot, with the 7630 line the second-biggest on the chart. If 7635 goes, this is where the range resolves, and it is the strike a downside fly would be short.
Long 7610 to 7620
Three more long lines under the 7625 balance. Together with 7625 and 7630 they make the downside the longer side of the chart: more strikes long, one after another, with a clear peak. That is the shape the framework wants.
Short 7605
One short line between the long 7610 and the long 7600. Not a level in that day's framework (it sits below the second test), but it is the kind of alternating line that keeps the very bottom of the chart from being a clean target.
Long 7600: the biggest line on the chart
The single largest long line in the expiry, well below the straddle range. Not a level for that day unless 7635 goes and 7625 fails, but it is where the charm pull points if the downside really opens up.
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Takeaway
Reject a test = reverse tests and ranges until balance. Balance to open is 7660 (weak). Upside: 7665 then 7695. Cross 7665 and the balance is 7675 (strong), or the tape extends to test 7695; cross 7695 and the balance is 7700 (weak, unstable). Downside: 7645 then 7635. Cross 7645 and the balance is 7640 (weak, unstable), or the tape extends to test 7635; cross 7635 and the balance is 7625 (strong). Each test rejected reverses the tape back through the range toward balance.
7700balance · Weak / Unstable
Only in play once 7695 is crossed. Market makers are short from 7685 up to 7710, so a balance up here sits inside their short cluster: unstable by construction, with the long 7715 and 7720 lines just above it.
7695test
The second upside test, and the top of the straddle range (7,692). Short lines from 7685 through 7710. Cross it and the balance moves to 7700 (Weak / Unstable).
7675balance · Strong
Market makers long 7670, 7675 and 7680: the heaviest long cluster above spot. Cross 7665 and this is where the upside resolves, unless the tape extends straight through to test 7695.
7665test
Short 7665, five points above spot. The first upside test. Cross it and the tape either settles on 7675 (Strong) or extends to test 7695.
7660balance · Weak
The opening balance, right where spot sits. Almost nothing on the line itself, which is why it is weak: the strong balances are 15 points either side of it, at 7675 and 7625.
7645test
Short 7645 and 7650. The first downside test. Cross 7645 and the tape either settles on 7640 (Weak / Unstable) or extends to test 7635.
7640balance · Weak / Unstable
A modest long 7640 line wedged between the short 7645 and the short 7635. Balance only while 7635 holds.
7635test
Short 7635, the biggest short line below spot. The second downside test, a few points above the bottom of the straddle range (7,628). Cross it and the balance moves down to 7625 (Strong).
7625balance · Strong
Market makers long 7630 and 7625, the heaviest long cluster on the chart after 7600. Where the range resolves if 7635 goes.
2. What a test and a balance look like, and where the trade goes
Strip that day's numbers away and this is the shape you're looking for. Dealers short at the edges, dealers long in the middle. Their hedging pushes price away from where they're short and, as the day decays, charm pulls it toward where they're long. So the shorts are the tests and the longs are the balance, and the structure follows from that.
Buy where you expect to trade through
The wings go at the tests. You're long the option at a strike the market is likely to run through on the way to being rejected, so if it does run, you're covered and the trade is capped instead of blown out.
Sell where you expect to trade to, not through
The body goes at balance. You're short the options at the strike the tape settles on, and that's the strike you want to pin. Short the pin, never long the pin.
So, the fly
Buy one at the upper test, sell two at balance, buy one at the lower test. Usually about 15 points a side, a bit wider when the straddle is rich. Pay $2.50 to $4.00, look for two to four times that, and if the range goes, cut it and wait for the next range.
3. The framework, in order
Same rules every session, in the order they get applied. Positions give you the range and the target, gamma tells you how the tape is going to behave, charm tells you which way it leans, and the structure is how you turn a weighted coin into a trade. The quotes are from the VS3D trading sessions.
1. Dealer shorts are the range, dealer longs are the target
The strikes market makers are short frame the range. Inside it, the strike they are longest is where the tape resolves. Hedging pushes price away from the max short and toward the max long, the opposite of the usual assumption about what market makers do.
"What is the range? Well, it's the dealer's max short. And then, what's the target inside the range? It's the max long."
2. Expiring open interest drives the bus
Read the day's expiry as it stood at yesterday's close, after reconciliation. That position is unlikely to get closed, so its hedging path is real. Same-day prints mostly get unwound; they are noise, not structure.
"A lot of what you see in the massively overinflated volumes is noise. I'm looking for structure, something I can actually identify and trade off of."
3. Shape beats size
You want several strikes short with a clear peak on one side and several long with a clear peak on the other, so the pressure is consistent across the range. Alternating long, short, long, short is a fishbone: nothing to trade.
"When you get that, you get a powerful force that's consistent through them."
4. Balance is the target, not the entry
The balance point is the long cluster the range resolves to once the other flows quiet down, and it is always the short strike of the structure. You do not buy it. You sell the tests and let the tape bring you to it.
"You want your short options to be what you pin. You don't want to ever land on a long option."
5. A test is a fork, not a signal
At a short cluster the tape either extends beyond it or gets rejected. Give it about half an hour of chewing at the level. Rejection is the signal; reversion toward balance is the trade. Repeated returns to a level you have broken are thin ice, not confirmation.
"It's like a fork. There's a probability of going up or down, but not flat."
6. In fast markets, treat balance levels like tests
The first 90 minutes routinely move a full day's straddle in minutes. Decay flows do not play out against that. Until volume and aggression drop, every balance level behaves like a test: let it extend, wait for the rejection.
"In the morning, you almost treat all the levels as test levels. You should not even be thinking about balance."
7. Lost the range? Cut. Enter the range, re-add.
A crack of the boundary flips the passive flow you were leaning on against you, so the hypothesis is gone. Three crossings of the level, or 15 to 20 minutes spent beyond it, and you are out. There is another range with its own balance point, or there is no trade.
"It might come back, but it's not grounded in my approach anymore, so ignore it, it's done."
8. Gamma is behavior, not direction
Long gamma is glue: liquidity, stickiness, a good place to sell options and fade the edges. Negative gamma means no stabilizer: widen the tolerance, take profit earlier, expect less precision. Gamma is never bullish or bearish.
"When you have negative gamma, I literally just downshift what I think is possible."
9. Charm is the one directional input, and it is an afternoon tool
Charm is the passive drift from decaying hedges: away from the dealer shorts, toward the dealer longs. It is weakest at the open and strongest into the close. The day splits in three: the open to London close (ignore charm), London close to 2 PM (the entries, usually 11 to 11:30), 2 PM to the close (hold or fold).
"I almost never trade the open. My lens gives me no edge. It's just chaos."
10. The edge is a known flow that is about to flip
If the cohort you can see is buying and price goes sideways, someone you cannot see is selling. When the known buyer turns seller later in the day, the balance breaks in a knowable direction. That is the bias the whole framework exploits.
"I know that my buyer that I'm witnessing will become a seller later. And that is enough to produce a bias in your outcomes."
11. The structure: a fly with the short strike on balance
Buy the wings, sell the middle at the balance strike, about 15 points either side, wider when the straddle is rich. Pay $2.50 to $4.00, look for 2x to 4x. The short middle decays fastest, so a wrong read can usually still be cut with half the premium.
"I'll exit for a profit and call it a loss, because my hypothesis didn't hit."
12. Being right is not the goal
Under 5% of the account in any one trade. Play as much as possible forever, never double down when the range is lost because it is cheaper. Best days: slow, low flow, long gamma, a big clustered position with clean shape. Worst: chaotic mornings, negative gamma, messy multi-expiry cycles. Knowing when to sit out is the best asset.
"I don't care about being right. I care about walking away with money in my account."
4. The September 3 overnight tape against that day's levels
The SPX-equivalent overnight range in the futures, 6:30 PM the night before to 6:40 AM that morning: low 7,651.70 at 1:21 AM, high 7,681.20 at 4:04 AM, 7,661.70 at capture. About 30 points, which is a straddle's worth, and all of it inside the second tests. Hover the marks to see which level each one sat on.
On this chart (hover or tap)
1Overnight high 7,681.20 at 4:04 AM
2Overnight low 7,651.70 at 1:21 AM
37,661.70 at 6:40 AM
4The 7675 balance on this chart
5The 7665 first test
6The 7660 balance
Overnight high 7,681.20 at 4:04 AM
The high sat a few points above the 7675 balance and just under the short cluster that starts at 7685. It did not get into the 7695 test, and it came back down through 7675 and 7665 over the next two hours.
Overnight low 7,651.70 at 1:21 AM
The low sat between the 7645 first test and the 7660 balance, and it was rejected sharply: the tape was back at 7665 within half an hour. Overnight the range stayed inside both first tests.
7,661.70 at 6:40 AM
Where the futures sat when the captures were taken: right on the 7660 opening balance, having drifted down from the 4 AM high through the 7675 cluster and the 7665 test.
The 7675 balance on this chart
Roughly the 7675 line. The overnight tape spent about an hour above it around 4 to 5 AM and then came back through it, which is the pattern the framework expects at a strong balance early in the day: it gets traded through and rejected until the fast money clears.
The 7665 first test
Roughly the 7665 line. Crossed on the way up around 3:30 AM, crossed back on the way down around 5:45 AM. Overnight both crossings were quick: the extension-and-rejection behaviour of a test.
The 7660 balance
Roughly the 7660 line, where the futures sat at capture. The whole overnight session pivoted around it, which is what a balance is supposed to look like, even a weak one.
Hover the figure or the list to reveal an element · click to pin · Esc to unpin
5. Gamma on September 3: is this a day to fade the edges?
The Gradient Chart on Gamma. Green is long gamma, and on September 3 it's green across the whole range until about 2 PM. The red shows up late, and it shows up right on the short clusters: 7690 to 7710 and 7650 to 7675. The tooltip is the 9:00 AM column at 7,660.71.
On this screen (hover or tap)
1Gradient Chart, SPX, Gamma
2Spot readout
3Green across the range until about 2 PM: positive gamma everywhere
4Red pocket at 7690 to 7710 from about 2:20 PM
5Red pocket at 7650 to 7675 from about 2:30 PM
6Red at 7740 into the close
Gradient Chart, SPX, Gamma
One greek of the whole market maker position simulated at every index level for every 10 minutes of the session. This capture is Gamma: the futures they have to trade per point of index movement. The full guide: volsignals.com/gamma.
Spot readout
SPX 7,660.17 at capture, down 6.51 from the 7,666.68 close. The straddle was $32.10.
Green across the range until about 2 PM: positive gamma everywhere
From 7,575 up to 7,750 the field is green from the open until early afternoon. So market makers are long gamma and they are selling rallies and buying dips at every level in the range, and that's the backdrop for a range day: moves get absorbed instead of extended once the fast money is out of the way.
Positive gamma is why the tests get rejected and the tape resolves back to balance.
The green is darkest right around spot, which is the morning meeting's point: local gamma goes to about neutral near 7660 and the profile resolves one way or the other. With the jobs number the next morning, that resolution may wait.
Red pocket at 7690 to 7710 from about 2:20 PM
The short cluster from 7685 to 7710 turns the field red in the last 90 minutes. Above 7690 late in the day the hedge flips from absorbing to chasing: through the 7695 test late, market makers buy the break.
Red pocket at 7650 to 7675 from about 2:30 PM
The short 7665 line, with the short 7645 and 7650 under it, goes negative late. That is the zone between the opening balance and the strong 7675 balance, so a late move through it gets chased rather than faded. It is also why the afternoon lean matters more than usual on September 3.
Red at 7740 into the close
A small negative pocket at the top of the chart in the last half hour. Out of range for that day unless the upside opens up completely.
The tooltip fields
1Timestamp
2Price
3Exposure
4Dollar Per Percent
5Dollar Value of Trade
6Hedge Product to Trade
Timestamp
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM column, read at the hovered level.
Price
The simulated level, 7,660.71. Hover elsewhere on the field and every number below reprices.
Exposure
Gamma at the node: 71.90. Positive = market makers are long gamma here.
Dollar Per Percent
$4.22bn of futures to trade for a 1% move in the index. The size of the lean.
Dollar Value of Trade
-$55.1mm: the notional value of futures to trade on a $1 up move in the index. Negative = they sell into strength.
Hedge Product to Trade
-143.81 ES: the futures to trade on a $1 up move. The number to carry to the tape: every dollar of rally from here gets met with about 144 ES of selling, and every dollar of dip with the same amount of buying.
6. Charm on September 3: which way does the afternoon lean?
The Gradient Chart on Charm. The flip sits at about 7,680 and spot opened about 20 points under it, in the blue. So with the index standing still, market makers sell futures as time passes, and the lean on September 3 is down, toward the long 7625 and 7630 cluster. It's light at 9:00 (-5.51 ES over the next five minutes, noise) and it builds into the afternoon pockets.
On this screen (hover or tap)
1Gradient Chart, SPX, Charm
2The flip at about 7,680
3Gold above 7,680: market makers buy as time passes
4Blue below the flip: selling as time passes
5Gold pocket at 7655 to 7680 from about 2 PM
6Blue pocket at 7700 to 7740 from about 2:30 PM
7Gold pocket at 7575 to 7600 from about 1:45 PM
Gradient Chart, SPX, Charm
Same field, different greek. Charm is how the delta of the position changes as time passes, so which way the passive hedge leans with no move in the index at all. The full guide: volsignals.com/charm.
The flip at about 7,680
The dotted contour where charm crosses zero. It sits at about 7680 that morning and drifts up toward 7685 by early afternoon, so it runs right along the top of the 7675 balance cluster. Spot opened about 20 points under it.
Gold above 7,680: market makers buy as time passes
Everywhere above the flip the field is gold, so that is negative charm: the position loses delta as time passes and market makers buy futures to stay hedged. That only helps a rally once it has cleared 7675 and 7680, so on September 3 the supportive side of the charm profile is above the first upside test, not at spot.
Blue below the flip: selling as time passes
Spot is in the blue. Positive charm: the position gets longer as time passes and market makers sell futures. The morning meeting called it a bearish lean, and light: at 9:00 the tooltip reads -5.51 ES over the next five minutes at spot, which is noise. The lean gets stronger with the decay and shows up in the pockets after 2 PM.
With the index standing still, the passive flow at 7660 is a small sell all day.
That is what makes 7645 a test and not a balance: the drift is toward the long 7625 and 7630 cluster.
Gold pocket at 7655 to 7680 from about 2 PM
The long 7670 to 7680 lines just above spot: late in the day an out-of-the-money long line loses its delta fast, so the position gets shorter and market makers buy. A late-afternoon tape sitting between the opening balance and 7675 gets a buying lean from this pocket.
Blue pocket at 7700 to 7740 from about 2:30 PM
Above 7700 late, the same long lines are in the money and gaining delta, so the sign turns and market makers sell. A late push through the 7695 test meets charm selling, which is why the 7700 balance is called unstable.
Gold pocket at 7575 to 7600 from about 1:45 PM
Below 7600 late in the day the big long 7600 line and the ones above it are in the money and gaining delta the other way, so market makers buy. Out of range for that day unless 7635 and 7625 both go, but it is where a downside extension would get pulled back from.
The tooltip fields
1Timestamp
2Exposure
3Dollar Value of Trade
4Hedge Product to Trade
Timestamp
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM column at 7,659.90.
Exposure
Charm at the node: +2.76. Positive = the position gets longer with time = market makers sell.
Dollar Value of Trade
-$2.1mm of futures to sell over the next five minutes at this level, purely from time passing.
Hedge Product to Trade
-5.51 ES contracts to sell. Noise at 9:00, and the morning meeting said so. It runs every five minutes all day in one direction, and it gets bigger as the expiry decays, which is why the afternoon pockets matter more than this number.
7. Putting it together for September 3
The read
We're long gamma across the whole range that morning and the opening balance is weak: 7660, right where spot sits, with almost nothing on the line. The strong balances are 15 points either side, 7675 above and 7625 below, and the first tests are close: 7665 five points up, 7645 fifteen points down. Charm leans down on September 3 with the flip at about 7680, so the passive flow at spot is a small sell all day, and the supportive gold only starts once the tape has cleared 7675 and 7680. The $32.10 straddle puts the second tests, 7695 and 7635, right on the edges of the priced range. And the morning meeting's caveat stands: profiles like this tend to resolve one way, but with the jobs number the next morning the decisive move may wait.
The structure
Nothing in the first 90 minutes: overnight the tape already traded through 7675 and 7665 and back, and the morning will do it again. After London close, once a test gets rejected, a fly with the short strike on whichever balance is in force makes sense: reject 7665 and the middle is 7660 with the wings around 7645 and 7675; cross 7665 and reject 7695 and the middle is 7675, which is the strong one and the one charm helps from above; reject 7645 and the middle is 7660 again; cross 7645 and 7635 and the middle is 7625, with the charm drift helping from above. If we get above 7695 and hold there late, the gamma pocket and the charm pocket both turn against a fade, so you stand aside until 7700 either holds or goes. This is how we think about it, not a recommendation to put it on.
Next step
Trade it off the live position, not a screenshot.
The free 7-day trial opens the same dashboard this page came out of, so Positions by Strike and Expiry, the Gradient Chart on every greek and the flows behind them. Come to today's 2:00 PM ET session and we'll go through today's range together and take your questions.
DisclaimerEverything on this page is educational. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option, and not a solicitation. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor; you can lose more than your premium on some structures and all of it on others. The levels, positions and greeks shown are model outputs from VolSignals data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a track record and past behavior of a position says nothing about what happens next. Do your own work and talk to a licensed adviser before you trade.
Data via Cboe, VS3D/VolSignals · Modeling via VS3D/VolSignals · Today's section: dashboard captures Oct 8, 2026 8:20 AM ET, tooltips read on the 9:30 AM column; September 3 sections: dashboard captures Sep 3, 2026 6:40 AM ET; tooltips read on the 9:00 AM column; levels from the VolSignals morning meeting. VolSignals is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer.